Image copyright Adrian Luckman An iceberg expected to be one of the 10 largest ever recorded is ready to break away from Antarctica, scientists say.
A long-running rift in the Larson C ice shelf grew suddenly in December and now just 20km of ice is keeping the 5,000 sq km piece from floating away.
Larsen C is the most northern major ice shelf in Antarctica.
Researchers based in Swansea say the loss of a piece a quarter of the size of Wales will leave the whole shelf vulnerable to future break-up.
Larsen C is about 350m thick and floats on the seas at the edge of West Antarctica, holding back the flow of glaciers __that feed into it.
Researchers have been tracking the rift in Larsen C for many years, watching it with some trepidation after the collapse of Larsen A ice shelf in 1995 and the sudden break-up of the Larsen B shelf in 2002.
Last year, researchers from the UK's Project Midas reported __that the Larsen C rift was growing fast.
But in December the speed of the rift went into overdrive, growing by a further 18km in just a couple of weeks. What will become a massive iceberg now hangs on to the shelf by a thread just 20km long.
"If it doesn't go in the next few months, I'll be amazed," project leader Prof Adrian Luckman, from Swansea University, told BBC News.
"There hasn't been enough cloud-free Landsat images but we've managed to combine a pair of Esa Sentinel-1 radar images to notice this extension, and it's so close to calving that I think it's inevitable."
Prof Luckman says the area that will break off will be about 5,000 sq km, a size he says that would put the iceberg among the top 10 biggest that have been recorded.
The researchers say that this is a geographical and not a climate event. The rift has been present for decades, they say, but it has punched through at this particular time.
It is believed that climate warming has brought forward the likely separation of the iceberg but the scientists say they have no direct evidence to support this.
However, they are concerned about how any break-off will impact the rest of the ice shelf, given that its neighbour, Larsen B, disintegrated spectacularly in 2002 following a similar large calving event.
"We are convinced, although others are not, that the remaining ice shelf will be less stable than the present one," said Prof Luckman.
"We would expect in the ensuing months to years further calving events, and maybe an eventual collapse - but it's a very hard thing to predict, and our models say it will be less stable; not that it will immediately collapse or anything like that."
As it floats on the sea, the resulting iceberg from the shelf will not raise sea levels. But if the shelf breaks up even more, it could result in glaciers that flow off the land behind it to speed up their passage towards the ocean. This non-floating ice would have an impact on sea levels.
According to estimates, if all the ice that the Larsen C shelf currently holds back entered the sea, global waters would rise by 10cm.
All that is very much in the future. There are few certainties right now apart from an imminent change to the outline of Antarctica's icy coast.
"The eventual consequences might be the ice shelf collapsing in years to decades," said Prof Luckman,
"Even the sea level contribution of this area is not on anybody's radar; it's just a big geographical event that will change the landscape there."
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Image copyright Getty Images Brexit poses a huge risk to UK wildlife and habitats and a new environmental law will be needed, MPs have said.
Even where EU law is incorporated into the UK's legal framework there could still be problems, they warn.
The House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee also says farmers are facing significant threats including loss of income and tariffs on exports.
The government says it is committed to safeguarding and improving existing environmental protection.
Problems with incorporation
Whether it is the cleanliness of the UK's beaches, pollution control or the protection of species, much of the UK's environmental and wildlife legislation is rooted in EU directives.
The government has said __that it will introduce a "Great Repeal Bill" that will incorporate many of these regulations into UK law when Britain leaves the union.
However, Environment Secretary Andrea Leadsom admitted that about one third of the current environmental rules would be difficult to transpose into UK law, saying "there will be work to do to ensure we can continue to make these measures work once we leave the EU".
For instance, the EU's Birds and Habitats Directives have given much greater protection for wild birds and special areas of conservation than domestic UK legislation - but these will no longer apply in their current form in UK law even if Britain remains in the Single Market.
The cross party Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) says that to ensure that there is no weakening, a new environmental protection act should be passed during the Article 50 negotiations.
"European law protects huge amounts of the UK's environment, farming and countryside," Mary Creagh, chair of the committee, told BBC News.
"The process of leaving the EU presents a huge risk to all of those protections which is why in our report we're calling for new environmental protection act so that when we leave the European Union we are no worse off protected than we are at the moment."
And it suggests incorporating EU law into the UK legal framework could result in these protections becoming so-called "zombie" laws, which are no longer updated and could be easily eroded with minimal parliamentary scrutiny.
Environmental campaigners agreed that this was a significant concern.
"The Great Repeal Bill must contain democratic safeguards to make sure that no significant amendment to the scope or purpose of EU environmental legislation can be made without being subject to full parliamentary scrutiny," said Sam Lowe from Friends of the Earth.
"No one voted to 'take back control' for the UK Parliament, only to hand it straight over to a minister, brandishing a red pen, with the power to delete vital nature protections on a whim."
The report also focuses on the impact of Brexit on farming, pointing out that the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) makes up between 50-60% of some farm incomes. The MPs say they have a number of worries about the future of farming.
"UK farming faces significant risks - from a loss of subsidies and tariffs on farm exports, to increased competition from countries with weaker food, animal welfare and environmental standards," said Mary Creagh.
"The government must not trade away these key protections as we leave the EU. It should also give clarity over any future farm subsidies."
Many environmental campaigners believe that Brexit represents a very good opportunity for reforming the EU farming policy that they say has been one of the biggest drivers of environmental decline in the UK and other parts of Europe.
"There needs to be substantial reform - if a farmer is holding water on his field upstream that is helping to prevent downstream flooding, that's not a commercial activity for a farmer but that's where public subsidy is warranted," said Trevor Hutchings from WWF-UK.
"There's a huge opportunity here to have a strong and thriving farming community, environment as well as servicing a public good."
Responding to the report the government pointed out that the UK is a signatory of international wildlife protection conventions, such as Ramsar and Bern, that are independent of EU membership.
A spokesperson said: "The UK has a long history of wildlife and environmental protection and we are committed to safeguarding and improving these, securing the best deal for Britain as we leave the EU."
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Martin Aircraft in New Zealand built the prototype that’s closest to allowing you to jet to work. A fan-propelled, rotary-engine-powered jetpack with 200 horsepower, the Martin Jetpack (not pictured) keeps steady altitude even if riders’ hands leave the controls for a sip of coffee. “It’s ridiculously easy to fly,” says Mike Read, VP of sales at Martin. Its range? Thirty miles. Martin plans for the military to test it before consumers whiz it around.
Want to know if your fantasy invention could become a reality? Tweet @PopSci or tell us on Facebook. This question came from Popular Science reader Stuart Harwood via Facebook.
This article was originally published in the January/February 2017 issue of Popular Science, under the title “I Wish Someone Would Invent...A Long-Distance Jetpack.”
For thousands of years, explorers have navigated by following the natural world: the sun, stars, prevailing winds, and even moss.
Common wisdom says __that moss grows only on the north side of trees, which means you can use it to find your bearings if you’re lost in the woods. This is generally true, says Caitlin Fong, an ecologist at California State University in Northridge. To thrive, moss requires damp and shady environments __that prevent it from drying out. And as you move north, away from the equator, the sun’s rays strike Earth at a southern angle rather than directly overhead, so the north side of an object will receive less sunlight.
This rule, however, applies only in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, it’s the opposite: The sun’s rays will always be a little north of directly overhead because of the tilt of Earth on its axis. So in Australia, moss grows comfortably on the shadier south side of trees. Architects also take this principle into consideration when they’re designing buildings and deciding where to place windows, says Fong.
Still, don’t toss your compass just yet. Moss is a primitive plant called a bryophyte. Bryophytes don’t have roots or a vascular system for circulating water and minerals the way trees and grass do. That means mosses can lose moisture extremely quickly, which is one of the reasons they grow only in cool and shady places, says Fong. And lots of things can create the shady conditions that moss prefers, including the cracks in rocks and boulders and in trees’ shadows in a dense forest. So if you look closely enough, you’ll see moss growing in all directions.
Fong recommends always using a compass. But in a pinch, she says hikers can note where moss grows in multiple different locations and form a consensus. “And try to do it in a sunnier area, because if you’re already in a shady area, there are a lot of different factors at play.”
This article was originally published in the January/February 2017 issue of Popular Science.
Have a burning question? Email it to askanything@popsci.com or tweet it to @PopSci with #AskAnything
Elephant populations in Africa have declined by around 111,000 over the past 10 years according to a new study.
The African Elephant Status report says __that poaching is the main driver of the fall, the worst losses in 25 years.
However the authors say __that long-term issues such as the loss of habitat also pose a significant threat.
The report has been presented at the Cites meeting which is considering new proposals on elephant protection.
War on elephants - Alastair Leithead, Africa correspondent
- Every year in Africa between 30,000 and 40,000 elephants are poached for their ivory, and it's thought there are only 400,000 left.
- Even accounting for the newborns, this rate of killing calls into question whether these amazing creatures will still be around in a generation, especially as Africa's ever-increasing population is reducing the space for them.
- Organised crime runs the ivory industry.
Extract from The War on Elephants; article on how the very existence of Africa's elephants is threatened by poachers
More from Alastair:
Why elephants are seeking refuge in Botswana
Shocking reduction in Africa's elephant numbers
Wide range of sources
Figures published earlier this year in the Great Elephant Census indicated that African elephant populations had declined by around 30% over the past seven years.
This new study from conservation group IUCN incorporates this information but also uses data from elephant dung counts and individual observations amongst other sources.
The authors say the overall total for elephants in Africa is now around 415,000, although there may be an additional 117,000 to 135,000 in areas not systematically surveyed.
This represents a decline of some 111,000 from the report carried out in 2006.
Annual elephant population change, 2010-14
Poaching is the main driver of the drop. East Africa, the region most affected by killings for ivory, has experienced around a 50% reduction in numbers.
However it is not the only cause of concern to the authors.
"We are particularly concerned about major infrastructure projects that are cutting up the elephant ranges, this is a particular problem for road development in central and east Africa," said Dr Chris Thouless, one of the report's authors.
"These are all major issues that will have to be dealt with once the poaching crisis is over."
Community conservation
While report highlights the losses there are also some gains.
Elephant populations in South Africa, Namibia and Uganda have all increased. Elephant ranges have expanded in Kenya and Botswana, with community based conservation showing real success in Northern Kenya.
While these are positives, the overall picture is one of dramatic decline, fuelled by criminal activity that would decimate these giant creatures, if continued.
"Larger quantities of illegal ivory are leaving Africa than ever before," said Ginette Hemley from WWF.
"The transnational crime syndicates driving the slaughter must be dismantled, and consumer demand for ivory cannot persist if we hope to secure a safe future for elephants."
The report comes as the Cites meeting here in Johannesburg is facing significant division on how to handle the poaching crisis.
Talks on extra protections for elephants will begin on Monday with a number of countries led by Kenya seeking extra protection.
Others, including Namibia and Zimbabwe, are seeking to liberalise the safeguards and open up a trade in ivory. Another proposal here, which might garner more support, is aimed at ending all domestic markets in ivory. The meeting continues until 5 October.
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Image copyright Reuters The largest ever pile of ivory will be set alight in Kenya on Saturday. But will it actually burn?
The fire will be seven times bigger than any previous ivory fires - 105 tonnes of tusks have been piled in pyramids, some three metres high (10 feet).
The idea is __that this will help tackle the illegal ivory trade and curb poaching, which is killing some 30,000 elephants a year.
The practice of burning ivory goes back to July 1989 when Kenya's then-President Daniel arap Moi ignited a pile of 12 tonnes of elephant tusks and helped change global policy on ivory exports.
After that, the trade was banned under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species.
This was a "desperate measure meant to send a message to the world about the destruction through poaching of Kenya's elephants," says Paul Udoto from the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS).
Since then many countries have followed suit but does setting fire to ivory actually destroy it?
The US chose to crush, rather than burn, one tonne of its ivory stockpile in public last year because ivory "doesn't catch fire the way you might imagine but rather just chars on the outside", says Gavin Shire from the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS).
Other countries have also opted for the crushing method.
One week to burn a tusk
The FWS forensic laboratory carried out an experiment in 2008 where it set fire to a piece of ivory at an ultra-high temperature.
The results, quoted by National Geographic online, showed __that burning ivory at 1,000C led to it losing just 7g per minute - meaning that it would take around a week to destroy an average male elephant tusk.
Kenya has become something of an expert in the field of burning ivory, having done it three times, and is well aware of the time and effort needed to destroy the tusks.
According to the KWS, after the dignitaries have driven off the pyre continues burning for at least a week.
Jet oil
Kuki Gallmann was one of those behind the 1989 fire and knew, from an experiment with some ivory in a domestic fire, that a high temperature was needed.
She helped devise a method using jet oil and a network of pipes under the tusks, which has been used on the other two occasions that Kenya has set fire to ivory, said Mr Udoto.
The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) says that 14 countries have carried out ivory destructions through either burning or crushing - or sometimes a mixture of both.
But there is a wider debate about how effective these acts are when it comes to ending the illicit ivory trade and reducing poaching.
"The destruction of ivory is a political mechanism to signal the government's commitment to curbing elephant poaching," says Tom Milliken from Traffic, which monitors the trade in wildlife.
"But there is no proof that destroying supply leads to a decline in demand."
The WWF argues that destruction should be combined with greater efforts on the ground to combat poaching.
Even though it may be difficult to actually destroy 16,000 tusks through burning, as the KWS's Mr Udoto says, it has been a way "to get the world to listen to its message" about the dangers of wildlife poaching.
Yeah. No. Not going to happen. To instantaneously transport across space, our bodies would need to convert to energy and back without mishap. Even if we combined the storages of every computer available today, __that would hold just a fraction of the data for one human, says Caltech physicist Philip Hopkins. The energy isn’t anything to scoff at either. He says, “It’d be like launching all of the U.S.’s and Russia’s nukes in one spot and trying to contain that.”
Want to know if your fantasy invention could become a reality? Tweet @PopSci or tell us on Facebook.
This article was originally published in the January/February 2017 issue of Popular Science, under the title “I Wish Someone Would Invent...A Teleportation Device.”
Image copyright Markus Vareavuo/naturepl.com Migrating birds are arriving at their breeding grounds earlier as global temperatures rise, a study has found.
Birds have reached their summer breeding grounds on average about one day earlier per degree of increasing global temperatures, according to the research by Edinburgh University.
The study looked at hundreds of species across five continents.
It is hoped it will help scientists predict how different species may respond to future environmental change.
Reaching their summer breeding grounds at the wrong time - even by a few days - may cause birds to miss out on maximum availability of vital resources such as food and nesting places.
Late arrival to breeding grounds may, in turn, affect the timing of offspring hatching and their chances of survival.
Long-distance migrants, which are shown to be less responsive to rising temperatures, may suffer most as other birds gain advantage by arriving at breeding grounds ahead of them.
Flowering and breeding
Takuji Usui, of Edinburgh University's school of biological sciences, said: "Many plant and animal species are altering the timing of activities associated with the start of spring, such as flowering and breeding.
"Now we have detailed insights into how the timing of migration is changing and how this change varies across species.
"These insights may help us predict how well migratory birds keep up with changing conditions on their breeding grounds."
The study examined how various species, which take flight in response to cues such as changing seasonal temperatures and food availability, have altered their behaviour over time and with increasing temperatures.
The researchers examined records of migrating bird species dating back almost 300 years.
The study drew upon records from amateur enthusiasts and scientists, including notes from 19th-century American naturalist Henry David Thoreau.
Species __that migrate huge distances - such as the swallow and pied flycatcher - and those with shorter migrations - such as the lapwing and pied wagtail - were included in the research.
The study, published in Journal of Animal Ecology, was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council.
Bumblebees and butterflies have seen their numbers plummet after another year of unsettled weather, according to a National Trust study.
The 10th annual wildlife report from the trust said mild winters and bad weather in summer created bad conditions for small plants.
But whilst insects suffered, grass growth rose, meaning a good year for livestock farmers.
Conservationists and farmers must work together, the trust said.
Warmer winter months and bad summers have become the norm, according to the report, which said the UK has not had a good summer since 2006.
Nature and wildlife specialist for the Trust, Matthew Oates, said: "2016 comes on top of an unsettled decade, with many species struggling in the face of climate change and more intensive farming practices.
"When you do get good weather during the brighter months of the year, it's almost inevitably short-lived and finished with something nasty.
"During the brightest months, we do seem to be getting more extreme weather events, most of which aren't nice."
Specific sites have now seen a big change in their wildlife, especially due to the surge in grass growth.
Observations at Lytes Cary, in Somerset, showed the number of bumblebees had fallen by 85% on the previous year as wildflowers __that attract the bees in field margins were outgrown by grass.
At Purbeck, in Dorset, meadow butterflies also saw a drop in numbers, with volunteers recording a fall in sightings of marbled white numbers by 73% and 23% fewer common blue butterflies.
But the grass growth meant good hay and silage harvests for tenant farmers on Trust sites and improvements on other sites.
Among birds, in Cornwall and Devon rare cirl buntings saw a rise in numbers by 800% since 1989.
And the grazing conditions for rare-breed Longhorn cattle in the Lake District's Ennerdale Valley led to the right wet grassland habitat for marsh fritillary butterflies, with larvae numbers up 560% in 10 years.
Mr Oates said the effect of grazing on rare species signalled the need for conservationists and farmers to work together when it comes to managing the land.
Other areas saw mixed results for their wildlife.
At Blakeney Point, on the north Norfolk coast, the grey seal population went from 100 pups being born in 2004, to 2,342 born by January this year. The Farne Islands also saw 1,879 pups born in 2016, which was up on last year.
There was also a larger apple crop, especially in the south west, because of the warm autumn and rain late in the season. The extended growing season also saw better conditions for damsons, acorns and hazelnuts.
However, there were falls in the number of field voles, which could lead to problems for barn owls and kestrels who feed on them.
And whilst slugs have benefited from the mild and wet weather, gardeners have had to suffer the effects on their plants.
Today we remember Carrie Fisher. In a decades-long career she left many indelible marks, but none so great as her portrayal of Princess Leia in Star Wars. She filmed the first movie at age 19 and died on Tuesday morning at age 60, having just completed filming on her fifth Star Wars movie.
Fisher’s Princess Leia was—like the rest of the Star Wars franchise—an inspiration to countless young science geeks. Here was a world filled with heroes and explorers, flying spaceships to unknown worlds and battling evil wherever they went. And it all depended on the futuristic technology __that George Lucas invented. A generation of children grew up wanting to make Star Wars a reality. They became mechanical engineers and astrophysicists. They thought science was cool. And they made it cool in the process.
This is true of nearly all science fiction. It inspires us to create things __that only the strangest among us could imagine. So strange, they made up elaborate, fantastical worlds to house their ideas and called it sci-fi. Cloaking devices, virtual worlds, and rocket ships—they were all science fiction before they were fact.
And it’s characters like Princess Leia that inspire young women to go beyond what society tells them they can be, to be explorers and Generals and rebels, to travel to strange new worlds. Engineer Holly Griffith got all the way to NASA Mission Control on her mission to be just like Leia. Fisher’s Leia was empowered, intelligent, and brave. She was a princess, but she didn't need rescuing.
Fisher battled drug addictions and bipolar disorder, but she turned struggle into strength. She spoke honestly about her mental health problems, helping to de-stigmatize the diseases she dealt with for many years. She was an outspoken feminist, even when she was playing an outdated hippie on 30 Rock. She set a standard for empowered female figures in a science-fiction world that badly needed it (and that the Star Wars movies are finally living up to). She was an inspiration to millions of science geeks—men and women alike—who wanted to bring a galaxy far, far away a little closer to home.
We’ll miss you, Carrie Fisher. Thank you for giving us hope.
Image copyright ZSL The sleek, speedy cheetah is rapidly heading towards extinction according to a new study into declining numbers.
The report estimates __that there are just 7,100 of the world's fastest mammals now left in the wild.
Cheetahs are in trouble because they range far beyond protected areas and are coming increasingly into conflict with humans.
The authors are calling for an urgent re-categorisation of the species from vulnerable to endangered.
Wiped out
According to the study, more than half the world's surviving cheetahs live in one population __that ranges across six countries in southern Africa.
Cheetahs in Asia have been essentially wiped out. A group estimated to number fewer than 50 individuals clings on in Iran.
Because the cheetah is one of the widest-ranging carnivores, it roams across lands far outside protected areas. Some 77% of their habitat falls outside these parks and reserves.
As a result, the animal struggles because these lands are increasingly being developed by farmers and the cheetah's prey is declining because of bushmeat hunting.
In Zimbabwe, the cheetah population has fallen from around 1,200 to just 170 animals in 16 years, with the main cause being major changes in land tenure.
Researchers involved with the study say that the threats facing the fabled predator have gone unnoticed for far too long.
"Given the secretive nature of this elusive cat, it has been difficult to gather hard information on the species, leading to its plight being overlooked," said Dr Sarah Durant, from the Zoological Society of London, UK, and the report's lead author.
"Our findings show that the large space requirements for the cheetah, coupled with the complex range of threats faced by the species in the wild, mean that it is likely to be much more vulnerable to extinction than was previously thought."
Another of the big concerns about cheetahs has been the illegal trafficking of cubs, fuelled by demand from the Gulf states, as reported by the BBC earlier this year.
The young cats can fetch up to $10,000 on the black market. According to the Cheetah Conservation Fund, some 1,200 cheetah cubs are known to have been trafficked out of Africa over the past 10 years but around 85% of them died during the journey.
At the recent CITES conference in South Africa, governments agreed to put new measures in place to tackle this issue, clamping down on the use of social media to advertise cheetahs for sale.
However if the species is to survive long term then urgent efforts must be made to tackle the wider question of protected areas and ranges.
The new study argues for a "paradigm shift in conservation", moving away from the idea of just declaring an area to be protected and towards incorporating "incentive-based approaches". This, in essence, means paying local communities to protect a species that many see as a dangerous predator.
"The take-away from this pinnacle study is that securing protected areas alone is not enough," said Dr Kim Young-Overton from Panthera, another author on the report.
"We must think bigger, conserving across the mosaic of protected and unprotected landscapes that these far-reaching cats inhabit, if we are to avert the otherwise certain loss of the cheetah forever."
To fully recognise the scale of the threat that the cheetah now faces, the report is calling on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to change the categorisation of the fastest animal on its Red List from vulnerable to endangered.
This would help focus international conservation support on a species that the authors fear is heading for extinction at an increasing pace.
The report has been published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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