Schiaparelli: The imperative to touch another world

Schiaparelli probe

"Dare to fail" is one of those mantras __that engineers like to repeat. It's how you learn.

That is certainly the attitude being taken by the European Space Agency (Esa) in the wake of its Schiaparelli mishap.

The probe's telemetry is still being analysed but it looks increasingly like the Italian-built robot did not make a soft landing on Wednesday.

Quite the contrary. It very probably hit the ground at high speed after jettisoning its parachute too early and firing its thrusters for only a few seconds.

But Esa is holding to the line __that no firm conclusions can be drawn until a full reconstruction of events is made from the telemetry.

And even if it is shown that Schiaparelli crashed, we should still consider it a partial success. The reason? We will know why it didn't work and the lessons can then be taken forward to make sure the next landing achieves a better outcome.

To repeat another of those mantras: "You're allowed to fail so long as you understand why you failed."

Confidence builder

For Esa's ExoMars programme, of which Schiaparelli was a part, the stakes could not be higher, however.

The next phase - the next landing - for ExoMars would see a British-assembled rover try to put down on the Red Planet in 2021.

This six-wheeled robot is an expensive project and is already struggling to get the full funding it needs to proceed.

Decisions on its budget will now be clouded by what has happened this week.

Schiaparelli was touted as the technology demonstrator - the project that would give scientists and engineers the experience, expertise and confidence to go forward with 2021.

They will certainly have filled their store of knowledge. By the bucket load. But will Esa member-state ministers meeting in December still have the stomach for another Mars landing, and - more to the point - the enthusiasm to part with the 300m euros that is likely needed to carry the rover project through to completion?

In a press conference at Esa's mission control on Thursday, the agency's director-general Jan Woerner was bullish in his assessment of how member states would react. The progress that had been made would be "obvious" to them, he said. We'll see.

Making the case

At a minimum, the ministers will want the board of inquiry set up in the wake of Schiaparelli's apparent loss to report quickly, with a clear and detailed explanation of the things that went wrong and how they can be put right.

On the plus side, Esa officials can point to the outstanding success of getting Schiaparelli's "mothership" into orbit. The Trace Gas Orbiter, as it is known, has the potential to deliver some fascinating insights on Mars' atmosphere and what its rarest molecules might say about the existence of life at the Red Planet today.

Originally, no observations were planned for many months while the TGO tidied up its orbit. Now, mission mangers are expecting to squeeze in some early science, just in time for those end-of-year deliberations. A good performance would be timely and perhaps give the ministers a feel-good factor.

And then next week, the key parties working on the rover - including their Russian partners - will conduct a major review of the status of the much-delayed project.

The findings also will inform the coming budget discussions.

Public interest

It would be a massive blow to European pride if ministers decided to abandon the aspiration to land on Mars (and the cause of no little disappointment in the UK where rover prototypes have been significant "vehicles" for STEM inspiration and education).

It would also highlight Europe's deficiency in its exploration of the Solar System.

Beyond TGO, Esa has a satellite planned for Mercury and one for Jupiter. But neither is near-term.

The former doesn't get to its target until the mid-2020s, and the latter doesn't start serious science until 2030.

There's a daring mission to fly close to the Sun that will launch in 2018, but that's not a planetary body - not one you can land on anyway.

And if we've learnt anything in the past couple of years with the Rosetta comet mission, it is that the public is most engaged when probes touch down on something.

Image copyright ESA
Image caption The Philae lander after separation, captured by Rosetta's OSIRIS narrow-angle camera

Gene Editing Shifts Food Possibilities Forward

The aisles of your corner grocery may look mundane. But as you walk past the stacks of cherries and blueberries, the ears of corn and bottles of white wine, consider __that you are witnessing a race against time.

Every day, our planet grows a little hotter and a little more crowded. Every day, we need to grow and distribute more food in the face of more hostile conditions. Every day, scientists race to develop tougher crops __that can withstand growing heat, drought and ferocious storms to feed a growing population.

“Our existing varieties of crops, our existing seeds, are not necessarily well-adapted to the new environment,” said Glenn Denning, a professor of development policy at Columbia University. “We have to look elsewhere.”

The race never stops. It plays out year after year, in our laboratories, on our farms, and along the aisles of our supermarkets. We have managed to stay one step ahead largely due to human ingenuity.

The quest for a more perfect crop is about to take a quantum leap. Scientists have developed a breakthrough technology that will allow us to develop new crops built for a harsher climate.

It’s called gene editing and it could prove vital to our survival in a warmer world.

For most of human history, genetic engineering meant breeding uncommonly tasty fruits and vegetables. Take corn. Over generations, we fashioned corn from a similar plant that sported fewer kernels, each hidden beneath a hard shell.

Today, we don’t need to wait for desirable mutations. We can borrow beneficial traits from other species. Scientists installed DNA from a bacteria known to kill insects into the genetic blueprint of corn. The resulting crop could fend off pests.

This form of genetic engineering, while light years ahead of selective breeding, can be slow and unwieldy. It’s kind of like editing a book by inserting new pages in between randomly selected chapters.

With gene editing, scientists can edit every letter, period and exclamation point in that imagined book with a speed and precision never seen before. Using a tool called CRISPR, scientists can turn specific genes on or off. The technology has made gene editing faster, cheaper and more efficient.

“These new tools enable us potentially to go much further than we were able to do with traditional breeding approaches,” said Denning. “We can be much more precise. We can develop new varieties much faster.”

Researchers at DuPont Pioneer have already used CRISPR to develop a strain of corn that can better withstand drought. In the years ahead, the technology will deliver a new generation of climate-resilient crops.

The human race can’t wait. The global population will total almost 10 billion by mid-century. A new report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization notes that most of that growth will take place in “regions with the highest prevalence of undernourishment and high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.”

Southern Africa is one such place. The region is coping with ongoing drought that has withered crops, leaving millions hungry. In response, experts have pushed for “climate-smart seeds.” Some organizations, like Drought-Tolerant Maize for Africa, are working to supply farmers with seeds that can endure persistently dry conditions. Where do these seeds come from?

They could come from seed banks, which are full of battle-tested crops adapted to withstand drought, pests and other hardships. Denning says seed banks are becoming more important in the age of climate change, but they may not always hold the answer.

“In the future we’re going to need to produce more food,” said Denning. “We’re going to need to be much more efficient at how we produce that food. A lot of the traits that we need actually aren’t available naturally.”

Importantly, CRISPR can only mute or amplify specific traits in existing species. Even as scientists use gene editing to develop climate-smart seeds, they must still recruit the raw materials from seed banks. But, using CRISPR, scientists can develop crops not found in seed banks or in the wilderness, and this holds immeasurable value.

“[Imagine] a farmer in Tanzania, who is growing cassava that has been attacked by a virus, and there’s no known resistance within the seed banks,“ said Denning. “If you go to that woman and say, ‘We’re working on a new variety… with a resistance to that virus,’ that woman is going to say, ‘Bring it on! I want it now, how long do I have to wait?’”

Not everyone feels like Denning’s hypothetical Tanzanian farmer. Some people have concerns about gene editing. One concern is that gene-edited crops would pass on their traits to future generations. A particular trait, say, an ability to ward off root worms, would become ubiquitous in the population. Pest-resistant crops could drive the root worm to the brink of extinction, dislodging a potentially vital species from the ecosystem.

“I think you’d have to be foolish to take it off the table as an option, as a way of tackling some of the problems we still don’t understand going forward,” said Denning. “We need to have all the tools of the trade ready, and at a point where we can deploy them very quickly, or we’re going to have catastrophes.”

In Western Europe, widespread aversion to genetically modified frankenfoods has led to bans on GMOs. We may see similar resistance to gene editing in wealthier countries. In countries where people are are already coping with climate change — Zimbabwe, Malawi and Tanzania, for instance — it is more likely to be a welcome development.

“If we had seeds that were more efficient at using our resources, using our land, using our nutrients and using our water, I think it would be potentially a great contribution to addressing climate change,” said Denning. “And I think we’re only starting to understand the powers of genetic modification and the tools of gene editing.”

Jeremy Deaton writes for Nexus Media, a syndicated newswire covering climate, energy, policy, art and culture. You can follow him at @deaton_jeremy.

Fears grow for European Schiaparelli Mars lander

Artwork Image copyright ESA
Image caption Artwork: Landing on Mars is not easy and requires rapid deceleration

There are growing fears a European probe __that attempted to land on Mars on Wednesday has been lost.

Tracking of the Schiaparelli robot's radio signals was dropped less than a minute before it was expected to touch down on the Red Planet's surface.

Satellites at Mars have attempted to shed light on the probe's status, so far without success.

One American satellite even called out to Schiaparelli to try to get it to respond.

The fear will be __that the robot has crashed and been destroyed. The European Space Agency, however, is a long way from formally calling that outcome.

Its engineers will be running through "fault trees" seeking to figure out why communication was lost and what they can do next to retrieve the situation.

This approach could well last several days.

Media captionAt least some good news: 'We have two satellites around Mars'

One key insight will come from Schiaparelli's "mothership" - the Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO).

As Schiaparelli was heading down to the surface, the TGO was putting itself in a parking ellipse around Mars. But it was also receiving telemetry from the descending robot.

That telemetry could now hold vital clues as to what happened in the crucial minute before the expected touchdown.

Esa experts and those from the industries that built Schiaparelli will examine the downlinked data overnight. They will hold a press conference at 10:00 local time (09:00 BST; 08:00 GMT) on Thursday.

Paolo Ferri, the head of mission operations here at Esa's control centre in Darmstadt, Germany, told reporters: "People will spend the night looking at this data. I'm pretty confident that this telemetry will tell us what action was interrupted when we lost the communications. I would say we have a very good chance tomorrow morning to either know that the lander is lost or to know what attempts we can make to recover it."

If the mood here surrounding Schiaparelli's fate is sombre, there is at least good cheer in the performance of the TGO in getting into its right orbit above Mars.

This satellite is really the key part of the mission formally called ExoMars 2016 - a joint endeavour with the Russian space agency (Roscosmos). The TGO is going to spend the coming years studying the behaviour of gases such as methane, water vapour and nitrogen dioxide in the Red Planet's atmosphere.

Although present in only small amounts, these components - methane in particular - hold clues about Mars' current state of activity. They may even hint at the existence of life on the planet today.

Media captionSchiaparelli's landing sequence - stage by stage

Landing on Mars is always a daunting prospect.

It is necessarily a high-speed approach that has to be got just right or the spacecraft runs the risk of smashing into the ground.

Schiaparelli had a heatshield, a parachute and rocket thrusters in order to slow its approach to the surface.

If the robot is later confirmed as lost, it will clearly be a major blow to Esa which suffered the disappointment of the Beagle-2 lander's failure at Mars in 2003.

But officials here have underlined the fact that Schiaparelli was always viewed within the agency as a technology demonstrator - a project to give Europe the learning experience and the confidence to go ahead and land a more ambitious six-wheeled rover on Mars in 2021.

"This is typical for a test," said Prof Jan Woerner, Esa's director general. "We did this in order to get data on how to land on Mars with European technology. Therefore, all the data we will get this night will be used to understand how to manage the next landing when we go with the rover."

This future vehicle is expected to use some of the same technology as Schiaparelli, including its doppler radar to sense the distance to the surface on descent, and its guidance, navigation and control algorithms.

What will concern commentators is that the budget for the rover is not yet secure. If Schiaparelli is indeed lost, Esa officials may find themselves having to work harder to explain to member states why the extra investment remains worthwhile.

Jonathan.Amos-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk and follow me on Twitter: @BBCAmos

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Science & Environment

UN: Global fish consumption per capita hits record high

Fishers landing tuna catch, Ivory Coast (Image: FAO/Sia Kambou) Image copyright FAO/S.Kambou
Image caption Globally, fish provided 6.7% of all protein consumed by humans, the FAO report estimated

Global per capita fish consumption has hit a record high, passing the 20kg per year mark for the first time, United Nations data has shown.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report said it was the result of improved aquaculture and reduced waste.

It added __that people, for the first time on record, were now consuming more farmed fish than wild-caught fish.

However, the report's authors warn __that marine natural resources continue to be overharvested at unsustainable levels.

The data has been published in the FAO's biennial State of the World's Fisheries and Aquaculture (Sofia) report.

Manuel Barange, director of FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Resources, welcomed the fact that global per capita fish consumption has passed the 20kg per year threshold.

"I personally think this is a very good thing because it shows that over the past five decades, fisheries supply - which combines aquaculture, inland fisheries and marine fisheries - has outpaced human population growth very significantly," he said.

"This is very significant because fisheries have a very much smaller footprint than other main sources of animal protein," he told BBC News.

"Fish is six times more efficient at converting feed than cattle, and four times more efficient than pork. Therefore increasing the consumption of fish is good for food security.

Image copyright FAO/S.Gapon
Image caption Fish provide an essential source of income, as well as vital nutrition, in many parts of the developing world

The growth in aquaculture has been identified as a key driver in boosting the global per capita consumption levels of fish. In the 1960s, the figure was an average of 9.9kg; in the 1990s, it was in the region of 14.4kg.

Mr Barange said the global aquaculture sector provided 74 million tonnes of fish products. Half of this production came from "non-feed" sources, which were species that did not require additional feeding in order to grow, he explained.

"That is quite important because when aquaculture started to develop as an industry, there were concerns that it would require feeding from, essentially, marine fish turned into fish meal," Mr Barange told BBC News.

"That in itself, the concern was, would be enough to undermine marine fisheries. But, actually, half of the aquaculture production does not need feeding at all."

Growing appetite

He added that another factor for the boost in the per capita figure was a result of more fish products being used for human consumption, rather than being diverted to feed animals etc.

"In the 1960s, we used to eat about 67% of the fish we caught and cultured. Currently, it is about 87%," he said.

"Improving consumption, improving the value chain and reducing losses, combined with aquaculture growth, is what has allowed us to reach this milestone."

Mr Barange said that the FAO was working with its member countries to develop guidelines for sustainable aquaculture that they can implement in their national policies.

"In the initial boom of aquaculture production, there was little attention paid to the underlying environmental impacts. This has improved over time," he observed.

"Clearly, there are still cases where aquaculture is causing damage to habitats but there are a large number of aquaculture industries that are developing in ways that are seen as sustainable."

Image copyright FAO
Image caption Global trends in the state of world marine fish stocks since 1974

While there were positive signs from the global aquaculture sector, the FAO Sofia report showed that life beneath the waves was not improving overall.

"Based on FAO's analysis of assessed commercial fish stocks, the share of fish stocks within biologically sustainable levels decreased from 90% in 1974 to 68.6% in 2013. Thus, 31.4% of fish stocks were estimated as fished at a biologically unsustainable level and therefore overfished," it reported.

Mr Barange said it was vital to continue to push for sustainability in the fisheries and aquaculture sector because it was an important source of employment and trade.

"There are about 57 million people that are engaged primarily in fishing; 80% of them are in Asia," he said.

"About 12% of the world's population rely on the fishing industry for their livelihoods. The majority of these people are in the developing world."

He added that trade in fish had grown exponentially in recent decades: "In 1976, fish exports amounted to only US $8bn. In 2014, it had reach US $148bn.

"Of this total, US $80bn was directly improving the finances of developing countries. That amount is higher than the net trade revenues of meat, tobacco, rice and sugar combined.

"The role that fish and fisheries play in economies and labour markets, particularly in the developing world, is very often understated. But it is extremely important.

"It is in this context that we want to improve the sustainability of these resources because so many of the poorest people on Earth depend on those resources."

Follow Mark on Twitter: @Mark_Kinver

UN: Farming needs to harvest chance to cut emissions

Combine-harvester working in a wheat field (image: AP) Image copyright AP
Image caption A growing reliance on crops such as wheat helps feed a growing population - but at what cost?

The global farming sector has a big role to play in the effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to future climate change, the UN says.

A report by the Food and Agriculture Organization said agriculture accounted for about a fifth of emissions, which it said needed to be reduced.

The State of Food & Agriculture 2016 report said "business as usual" would leave millions at risk from hunger.

Last year, nations adopted a UN goal of ending hunger by 2030.

"The climate is changing, so agriculture must change too," explained Rob Voss, director of FAO's Agricultural Development Economics division.

"We are saying __that because agriculture is already very affected by the impacts of climate change, particularly the countries in the tropical zones.

"Also, agriculture is contributing itself to about one fifth of the global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases," Mr Voss, who headed the team __that produced the FAO State of Food & Agriculture 2016 report, added.

"If we continue along the present pathways then we will not be able to [deliver] food security around the world and we will not be able to stabilise the climate."

Major changes

As a result, he told BBC News, there was a need for "major changes" to take place in the sector.

"One of the challenges is agriculture itself. As soon as we shovel the ground then we are already releasing greenhouse gas emissions. Also, as it is so dependent on water and quality of land, any impact from the change in climate has a direct impact."

Therefore, he said, the challenge was bearing these changes in mind and looking at ways to shift to a more sustainable footing.

"A lot of the technologies that are available that allow us to do things differently do face a number of hurdles, especially when it comes to smallholder farmers in developing countries.'

These include the cost of changing the way farmers produce their food; knowledge of shifting to the novel ways of farming; urbanisation; access to water.

In terms of making the change to deliver a robust global food system, Mr Voss said the report highlighted four steps that could be taken:

"First, put in the steps that would help farmers switch to more sustainable practices, such as more efficient use of fertilizers and using heat tolerant and drought resistant crop varieties."

He added that management systems, such as agroforestry - which places forestry cultivation around farmlands, would also be beneficial as it helps farmers build in great resilience against the impacts of climate change.

"Secondly, we need to work harder to increase the capacity of soils and forestry to sequestrate carbon. Deforestation and changes to land-use is one of the major sources of emissions from the sector.

"A third area where we can immediately start work on is to reduce food losses and waste. We estimate that about one third of the food we produce gets lost in the post-harvest process or gets wasted at the consumer end.

Rebalancing diets

"The fourth area, which is more challenging, is to try and do something about people's diets. What we have been seeing around the world is a clear shift towards increasing demands for food products that put a lot more pressure on natural resources."

The report observed: "Rebalancing diets towards less animal-sourced foods would make an important contribution in this direction, with probable co-benefits for human health."

FAO director-general Jose Graziano da Silva said that the coming twelve months should be about "putting commitments into action", referring to the adoption of the UN Sustainable Development Goal of delivering "zero hunger" by 2030.

He also observed that agriculture was set to be one of the main topics for discussion at the forthcoming UN climate summit in Morocco in November.

"Climate change threatens all dimensions of food security," Mr Graziano da Silva warned.

"It will expose both urban and rural poor to higher and more volatile food prices. It will also affect food availability by reducing the productivity of crops, livestock and fisheries."

He stated: "Hunger, poverty and climate change need to be tackled together."

Follow Mark on Twitter.

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Mad About Climate Denial

In their new book, The Madhouse Effect, renowned climate scientist Michael Mann and Washington Post cartoonist Tom Toles dive into the science and politics of global warming. The authors sat down with Nexus Media to share their insights. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

How do you think cartoons can improve the conversation about climate change?

Tom Toles: Humor is certainly a part of it. One of the challenges in climate change is it’s not a funny subject. Humor tends to either be reassurance humor or attack humor — and political cartooning tends to be more along the attack lines. In __that regard, there have certainly been a large number of targets, people who have been in the way of progress.

But the other thing a cartoon does is simplify and visualize and make the information a little more accessible. Climate is not as complicated a subject as everyone makes it out to be, and that’s one of the things a cartoonist can do is find the simple elements of it. There are many ways you can look at the problem, but they all can be simplified into imagery, or a few ideas __that are helpful in explaining to a casual reader how the subject is constructed and why they should care about it.

Michael Mann: There’s so much layering of information and nuance in Tom’s cartoons. They get at the science, but at the same time they get at the politics and the hypocrisy of climate-change-denying politicians. Somehow he’s able to do in a single cartoon what takes me half a chapter to describe in words. Sometimes there’s a message that’s being delivered but it’s almost subliminal. In our book, the cartoons and the text compliment each other.

For example, there’s a chapter in the book: “Hypocrisy, thy name is climate change denial.” In my view, there is no greater example of hypocrisy today than the hypocrisy of fossil-fuel funded politicians who are doing the bidding of fossil fuel interests. With Hurricane Matthew, we’ve actually had some figures from the right-wing extreme of the news media — Matt Drudge and Rush Limbaugh — accusing the National Hurricane Center of inflating their estimates of the intensity of this storm for some purported political agenda to somehow convey the effects of climate change.

For individuals who haven’t seen the raw data, it wouldn’t be a stretch for some to think of something as creative, and dishonest, as making up a data point.

Toles: This is why the argument has bogged down so badly. The point that I’m trying to get at in my cartoons is to, in simplified form, get at the actual facts and the actual truth. Now, the other side has engaged in a lot of data gathering and dispensing, but for exactly the opposite purpose: confusing the issue and confusing the public for the reason of preventing policy action.

So you could ask, “How does a general reader differentiate between the two apparent mirror image approaches that both claim to be true and both claim that the other side is lying?” That’s the reason the opposition has taken that tactic, because it is hard for a general reader, sometimes. The answer to that is 1) read the book, which explains the science and the reasoning behind the science in very plain, easy to understand terms, and 2) try to shed your preconceptions and ask yourself some basic questions such as, “If I’m not a climate scientist, who should I listen to?” The answer is you should probably listen to climate scientists.

For a long time, deniers or avoiders would say, “Well, there’s a lot of variation between scientists, they don’t all say the same thing.” And then when the data became so conclusive that essentially all climate scientists were saying the same thing, and saying the science is as solid as you’re ever going to see, the deniers turn around and say, “Well see, when you get unanimity, that’s when you have to be most suspicious of all.”

My answer to that is you have to be most suspicious of all when one side of the argument keeps changing their reasons for a conclusion, a predetermined conclusion, i.e. “Don’t do anything.” The conclusion never changes, the reasons always do change — that’s a dead giveaway for poor reasoning, and probably the wrong side of the argument.

Mann: That’s what we call epistemic closure. More evidence and more consensus just proves that the conspiracy runs deeper and wider. There’s no way out of it, it’s an internally closed loop of bad logic and ideologically motivated belief.

I’m reminded of a common trope that we see in Hollywood and on TV: There’s the hero and then there’s the shape-shifting villain, and the villain shape-shifts to look just like the hero, and there’s a third party that has to figure out which of them is really the hero. That’s sort of what we’re asking the public to do.

A climate scientist and a cartoonist are an interesting pair — how did you come to collaborate?

Mann: In my previous book, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars, we used a couple of Tom’s cartoons, that ultimately led to our publisher suggesting we combine forces — use the knowledge base that I had as a scientist working in the field of climate change, and my experience as one type of communicator, and then have Tom come at it from a completely different direction, using art and satire.

In a sense, we’re combining our right and left brains. I’m the left-brain scientist and Tom is the right-brain artist — it’s a simplification of course — bringing our approaches and our methods and our expertise together and melding them to talk about this existential challenge, this crisis, and maybe break through the morass that still exists in the public discourse on climate change.

Toles: I approach climate a little differently from Michael. He came at it strictly through the science, and I approached it as a cartoonist, as a communicator, and my understanding of it came not out of the laboratory but out of the same news media that everyone else has access to.

And one of the things I wanted to do as a cartoonist is make up for some of the deficit with which the national media was treating climate change. When I started reading about it, it sounded like a potentially immense problem and I was a little surprised and dismayed that the media treated it so casually — or not at all. To a certain extent, that’s still going on. The Paris Accord that just took effect got pretty scant coverage for such an important thing. I did a cartoon on that as yet another way to get coverage on such an important subject.

The opportunity to talk and interact with somebody who understands the subject at every level down has been a treat and an education for me.

Who are some of the cartoonists who have inspired you?

Toles: The foremost contender for that role is Gary Trudeau and [his strip] Doonesbury. He’s been pretty consistent on a lot of social issues, and some scientific issues. While Gary Larson, of The Far Side, was not exactly an advocate for anything in particular, he did seem to have a peculiar and consistent interest in scientific subjects. While he was often very absurdist in his cartoons, it was enjoyable and often he would be getting at a subtle scientific method or truth.

But, the environmental movement in political cartoons is very strong and longstanding, it went way back before Rachel Carson and the modern era of environmentalism to Teddy Roosevelt and the early 20th century idea of wilderness and the national parks. My predecessor at the Post, Herblock, who worked until he was 93 years old, went way back, and I think some of his earliest cartoons were environmental ones, all the way back to the 1920s.

Mann: Even though I’m a scientist, I’m also very passionate about communicating the science and its implications to the public, I’m always trying to learn new tools and new approaches, thinking outside the box a s a communicator. Satire and artistic approaches have so much to offer when it comes to breaking through to the public.

That’s the underlying inspiration for our book. I’ve been presenting facts and figures and data for years, as have many of my colleagues, such as those at the National Academy of Sciences, and somehow we haven’t broken through, because in the end the obstacle is less about scientific understanding than it is about politically motivated opposition and entrenched interests trying to prevent progress.

One of the most powerful images in the book is of a penguin and a polar bear meeting on floating icebergs, their habitats erased. Your cartoon is pretty in-your-face with what’s at stake.

Toles: The penguin and the polar bear was yet another way to find an image to grab people’s attention. I took something that they know — that polar bears live at the north pole and penguins live at the south pole, and climate change is going to have an effect on both places — and brought in the plight of ecosystems and the unnatural meeting of these two species that wouldn’t normally be together, even though they both live in icy areas. It was one more way to bring the topic home to people, to bring two things together that don’t go together — but in a way they do now. The idea of trying to find ways to think about an issue other than as a muddle of indistinct data, then to bring it home visually, compellingly.

Mann: There is the danger that when we make the polar bear the sole poster child of climate change. It makes it seem like its this far-off, exotic threat. So we have to bring it home, how it is impacting us now, where we live, whether it’s food or water or national security or health or what have you.

But I also care about the sort of world we leave behind — for my daughter, for her children for her grandchildren — do we really want to leave a fundamentally degraded planet with major losses of animal species and ecosystems? Even if we could survive, even if we persist, we would persist in a world that lacks so much of the wonder and beauty of the world that we grew up in. We just don’t want that for our children and grandchildren. It’s about leaving this place better off than we found it.


The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy is published by Columbia University Press (2016).

This interview was conducted by Josh Chamot, who writes for Nexus Media, a syndicated newswire covering climate, energy, policy, art and culture.

What Caused This Baffling Epidemic Of Hallucinations?

It's a local news story __that Stephen King could take notes from: Five people fell ill and started hallucinating, one after another, following contact with one woman who started seeing things in the dead of night.

The caretaker of a 78-year-old woman called the police in North Bend, Oregon's pre-dawn hours to report people vandalizing her vehicle, KVAL news reports. The cops came and went, finding nothing, only to be called back at 5:30 a.m. for a similar complaint. The officers suspected she was hallucinating, and took her to the hospital, where she was given a clean bill of health and discharged.

But as the day wore on, everyone who'd come in contact with her started showing similar symptoms of mental distress: Both deputies, the 78-year-old woman, and a hospital employee all had to be hospitalized for similar symptoms.

That afternoon, a hazmat team descended on Oregon's Bay Area Hospital, and the home where it all started, decontaminating vehicles and clearing the emergency room. They turned up nothing. "No source of the contamination has been found," Sgt. Pat Downing told KVAL. "The vehicles, equipment and uniforms have been checked with no contaminates identified or located on or about them." Not a blip in the patients' blood samples, either.

What could cause five unrelated people, who'd spent only a few minutes together in total, to break into a rash of hallucinatory episodes after coming into contact with one another? Popular Science played detective with Professor James Giordano, Ph.D. at Georgetown University Medical Center's Department of Neurology and Biochemistry on how hallucinations work, and how this case could have unfolded.

Environmental or psychotic? Drug-induced hallucinations tend to be visual in nature, while those __that are auditory are usually psychotic in nature, says Giordano. You can have mixed hallucinations that are visual and auditory, or tactile, such as feeling hands on your shoulders, skin crawling, or being covered in armor, but visual, acute-onset hallucination symptoms as the sheriff's department describes are usually triggered from something outside. Mushroom spores, aerosolized psychotogen, hallucinogenic drugs, and it wouldn't have to be that the patient's LSD got away from her — even some drugs used to treat Parkinson's can have hallucinogenic effects.

But 10 hours after the first call, the hazmat inspection team found nothing. "If that was ruled out, and there’s no contaminant, the plot thickens."

Hallucination or shared delusion? It's known as the "campfire effect." One person hears a bump in the night, and everyone around the fire is on edge, sure that every squirrel is Sasquatch. This group-think phenomenon could put all five patients in this story in the same hallucinatory boat — if it weren't for their job descriptions requiring them to battle much more pressing mental states than someone panicked about car vandals. "Do you really want to think these police officers and medical professionals are suddenly very, very susceptible to having these types of induced delusions?" asks Giordano. "Probably not."

He does concede that stress or physical demands, such as being extremely dehydrated, caffeinated, or exhausted, could prime a mind for a breakdown. Is it possible two police officers and a hospital employee were all just having a really bad day? "If the situation is stressful enough, that it’ll really sort of play on somebody’s mind strings. Here’s an individual who’s having vivid hallucinations," Giordano says. "If they’re describing the hallucinations, particularly if they’re being very vocal about it... The idea that they may be having simultaneous experiences can happen." Witnesses, for example, swearing that they saw someone on the grassy knoll. But it's very uncommon. "Is it possible? Yeah. Probable or likely? No."

Folie à deux, or "madness of two" This is the least likely answer, but interesting to consider: People living in close proximity for long periods of time could start to experience one another's delusions as their own shared belief system. A child under the care of a mentally ill parent might believe that people are living under their house, for example. But this theory requires all five people to be isolated and living together or interacting every day for a long time — something that didn't happen, unless the local news reports left out a major detail.

Working hypothesis Based on the limited details, Giordano says his gut goes back to a contaminant. "Although they said there was nothing there, the likelihood is that they missed it." It could have been a very small concentration of a highly potent drug, carried on the patients' persons from home to hospital. The five might have been exposed to a drug that altered their brain chemistry, and then were influenced by the previous patients' experiences to follow the same path.

"Absent that, things get a little 'whoa,' what’s going on here. What we do know is that the brain’s an interesting place."

European Schiaparelli probe on target for Mars landing

Artwork Image copyright ESA
Image caption Artwork: How Schiaparelli's separation might have looked

Europe's Schiaparelli spacecraft is on course to land on Mars.

The 577kg probe separated successfully from its mothership on Sunday at 14:42 GMT (15:42 BST; 16:42 CEST).

It is now on a direct path to intercept the top of the Red Planet's atmosphere on Wednesday.

The module will then have just under six minutes to reduce its 21,000km/h entry speed to zero in order to make a relatively soft flop-down on to Mars' dusty surface.

Schiaparelli is a technology demonstrator. It is intended to showcase the European Space Agency's (Esa) ability to land on Earth's near neighbour.

The organisation's only previous attempt was a very short-lived effort - the UK-led Beagle-2 robot in 2003.

This craft managed to make an intact touch-down but then failed to deploy its solar panels properly, blocking any contact with home.

Schiaparelli will hope to fare better, albeit with a planned surface operation of only a few days __that will be sustained by batteries.

Esa controllers in Darmstadt, Germany, were able to confirm the separation of the module from its carrier satellite - the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter - thanks to a radio transmission beamed across more than 170 million km of space.

Schiaparelli is now on its own; there is nothing anyone can do to change its trajectory or to give it new commands.

Its landing sequence on Wednesday is fully automated. The probe will rub off most of its entry speed thanks to a heatshield __that will push up against the Martian air. The combination of a big parachute and a cluster of rockets will then bring it to a near standstill just above the surface. Schiaparelli's final two metres will see it dump down on to its belly.

The Esa probe will emit UHF tones during its entry, descent and landing phases, which an Indian radio telescope will endeavour to capture and relay to Darmstadt. If the Indian facility can still hear Schiaparelli at 15:00 GMT (16:00 BST; 17:00 CEST) on Wednesday, it will mean the Italian-built module is safely on the surface.

While the landing attempt will no doubt occupy the media's and the public's attention in the coming days, Esa also has the very important task of "parking" the Trace Gas Orbiter at Mars.

Twelve hours after ejecting Schiaparelli, the satellite was due to change course to avoid following on behind the module and its collision path with the planet.

This manoeuvre will be followed by a "big burn" on the TGO's main engine on Wednesday, to put it on a large ellipse around Mars.

The orbiter will spend the coming years studying the behaviour of atmospheric components such as methane, water vapour and nitrogen dioxide. Although present in only small amounts, these gases - methane in particular - hold clues about the planet's current state of activity. They may even hint at the existence of life.

Jonathan.Amos-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk and follow me on Twitter: @BBCAmos

Six graphics that explain climate change

Global climate deal: In summary

World leaders applauded as the deal was passed through Image copyright AP
Image caption World leaders applauded as the deal was passed through

A global climate agreement has been finalised in Paris. What has been agreed?


Overview

The deal unites all the world's nations in a single agreement on tackling climate change for the first time in history.

Coming to a consensus among nearly 200 countries on the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions is regarded by many observers as an achievement in itself and is being hailed as "historic".

The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 set emission cutting targets for a handful of developed countries, but the US pulled out and others failed to comply.

However, scientists point out __that the Paris accord must be stepped up if it is to have any chance of curbing dangerous climate change.

Pledges thus far could see global temperatures rise by as much as 2.7C, but the agreement lays out a roadmap for speeding up progress.


What are the key elements?

  • To keep global temperatures "well below" 2.0C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times and "endeavour to limit" them even more, to 1.5C
  • To limit the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by human activity to the same levels __that trees, soil and oceans can absorb naturally, beginning at some point between 2050 and 2100
  • To review each country's contribution to cutting emissions every five years so they scale up to the challenge
  • For rich countries to help poorer nations by providing "climate finance" to adapt to climate change and switch to renewable energy.
Image copyright Reuters
Image caption A participant takes a rest during the Paris talks
Image copyright AP
Image caption Campaigners take to the streets of Paris to warn that failure to act to curb temperature rises will cross a red line

What's in and what has been left out?

The goal of preventing what scientists regard as dangerous and irreversible levels of climate change - judged to be reached at around 2C of warming above pre-industrial times - is central to the agreement.

The world is already nearly halfway there at almost 1C and many countries argued for a tougher target of 1.5C - including leaders of low-lying countries that face unsustainable sea levels rises in a warming world.

The desire for a more ambitious goal has been kept in the agreement - with the promise to "endeavour to limit" global temperatures even more, to 1.5C.

Dr Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, says the objective is "remarkable".

"It is a victory for the most vulnerable countries, the small islands, the least developed countries and all those with the most to lose, who came to Paris and said they didn't want sympathy, they wanted action."

Meanwhile, for the first time, the accord lays out a longer-term plan for reaching a peak in greenhouse emissions "as soon as possible" and achieving a balance between output of man-made greenhouse gases and absorption - by forests or the oceans - "by the second half of this century".

"If agreed and implemented, this means bringing down greenhouse-gas emissions to net zero within a few decades. It is in line with the scientific evidence we presented," says John Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Some have described the deal as "woolly" because some of the targets were scaled down during the negotiations.

"The Paris Agreement is only one step on a long road, and there are parts of it that frustrate and disappoint me, but it is progress," says Greenpeace International executive director Kumi Naidoo.

"This deal alone won't dig us out the hole we're in, but it makes the sides less steep."


What about money?

Money has been a sticking point throughout the negotiations.

Developing countries say they need financial and technological help to leapfrog fossil fuels and move straight to renewables.

Currently they have been promised US $100bn (£67bn) a year by 2020 - not as much as many countries would like.

The agreement requires rich nations to maintain a $100bn a year funding pledge beyond 2020, and to use that figure as a "floor" for further support agreed by 2025.

The deal says wealthy countries should continue to provide financial support for poor nations to cope with climate change and encourages other countries to join in on a voluntary basis.

Dr Ilan Kelman of UCL, London, says the lack of time scales are "worrying".

"The starting point of $100bn per year is helpful, but remains under 8% of worldwide declared military spending each year."


What happens next?

Only elements of the Paris pact will be legally binding.

The national pledges by countries to cut emissions are voluntary, and arguments over when to revisit the pledges - with the aim of taking tougher action - have been a stumbling block in the talks.

The pact promises to make an assessment of progress in 2018, with further reviews every five years.

As analysts point out, Paris is only the beginning of a shift towards a low-carbon world, and there is much more to do.

"Paris is just the starting gun for the race towards a low-carbon future," says WWF-UK Chief Executive David Nussbaum.

Prof John Shepherd of the National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, says the agreement includes some welcome aspirations but few people realise how difficult it will be to achieve the goals.

"Since the only mechanism remains voluntary national caps on emissions, without even any guidance on how stringent those caps would need to be, it is hard to be optimistic that these goals are likely to be achieved."


A Look Inside The Tesla Factory And A Real-Life Remembrall

Climate change: 'Monumental' deal to cut HFCs, fastest growing greenhouse gases

John Kerry
Image caption US Secretary of State John Kerry urged delegates to adopt an ambitious deal

More than 150 countries have reached a deal described as "monumental" to phase out gases __that are making global warming worse.

Hydroflurocarbons (HFCs) are widely used in fridges, air conditioning and aerosol sprays.

Delegates meeting in Rwanda accepted a complex amendment to the Montreal Protocol __that will see richer countries cut back their HFC use from 2019.

But some critics say the compromise may have less impact than expected.

Three-way deal

US Secretary of State John Kerry, who helped forge the deal in a series of meetings in the Rwandan capital, said it was a major victory for the Earth.

"It's a monumental step forward, that addresses the needs of individual nations but it will give us the opportunity to reduce the warming of the planet by an entire half a degree centigrade," he told BBC News.

The new agreement will see three separate pathways for different countries.

Richer economies like the European Union, the US and others will start to limit their use of HFCs within a few years and make a cut of at least 10% from 2019.

Some developing countries like China, nations in Latin America and island states will freeze their use of HFCs from 2024.

Other developing countries, specifically India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and the Gulf states will not freeze their use until 2028.

China, the world's largest producer of HFCs, will not actually start to cut their production or use until 2029.

Image caption Air conditioning units were needed at the conference in Kigali as negotiations dragged into the night

India, will start even later, making its first 10% cut in use in 2032.

"Absolutely it's a historic day," said Durwood Zaelke, from the Institute for Government and Sustainable Development (IGSD), a long time participant in the Montreal Protocol talks.

"We came to get a half a degree of warming out of the system and we are going to walk away with about 90% from the Kigali amendment."

Buying time

Certainly if the agreement is implemented in full it will make a big difference to global warming. Experts estimate it will remove the equivalent of about 70 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by 2050.

"HFCs posed an immediate threat to a safe climate due to their increasing use and high global warming potential, thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide," said Christian Aid's Senior Policy Advisor, Benson Ireri.

"By agreeing to an early HFC phase down schedule, we've bought ourselves a bit more time to shift to a global low carbon economy and protect the world's most vulnerable people."

Image copyright Getty Images
Image caption The deal will mean that new refrigerators will use less harmful cooling gases in the future

But some observers questioned the concessions made to India and China, suggesting they had weakened the overall impact. The target of cutting global warming by 0.5 degrees may not be realised.

"They needed an agreement here as it's seen as an Obama legacy, so the US delegation has been pretty aggressive in making China and India get to an agreement," said Paula Tejon Carbajal from Greenpeace International.

"It's an incremental step towards 0.5 degrees but its not there yet, they say that the market will work to get us there, but we are not there yet."

The US Secretary of State believes that the science underpinning the deal is sound. He is confident that it will have a huge impact on warming.

"I feel very positive about where we are, we ran all the numbers and everybody feels confident that the integrity of the substance of this is there," he told the BBC.

Supporters argue that this agreement in Kigali will build on the foundations laid by the Paris climate agreement, signed by over 190 countries last December, and which becomes operational early in November.

They also point to the past history of the Montreal Protocol - over 100 fluorinated gases have been eliminated in the agreement's 30 year history. Once the regulation has been passed, industry rapidly develops alternatives.

"The market is going to wash over India, and will sweep them along, they will make the transition a lot faster than the number they put up," said Durwood Zaelke.

"Phase-outs have always driven the market transition so the laggards will be moved along by the market."

There was a sense of quiet jubilation among delegates here when the deal was finally gavelled through in the early hours of Saturday morning.

'It's a big deal," one observer said, "but it could have been bigger."

Follow Matt on Twitter @mattmcgrathBBC and on Facebook.

What is Replication Crisis?

Psychology has a replication problem. Since 2010, scientists conducting replications of hundreds of studies have discovered __that a dismal amount of published results can be reproduced. This realization by psychologists has come to be known as "replication crisis".

For me, this story all started with ego-depletion, and the comics I had drawn about it in 2014. The idea is __that your self-control is a resource that can be diminished with use. When you think about all the times you've been slowly worn down by temptation, it seems obvious. When I drew the comics, there had been new research pointing to blood sugar levels as the font of self-control from which we all drew from. It also made sense—people get cranky when they're hungry. We even made up a word for it. We call it being "hangry".

Fast forward to July of this year when Martin Hagger and Nikos Chatzisarantis published the results of their multi-lab effort to replicate the results of a seminal ego-depletion study. The verdict? Over two thousand participants across twenty-three labs were not able to produce a statistically significant result. Alarmed by the implications, and looking to set the record straight on the comics I had drawn about ego-depletion, I reached out to Martin. Originally, I had planned to draw an erratum of sorts in comic form, but as I spoke with Martin about the issue, it became clear that there was something bigger that I had been missing.

I spoke with several scientists, and found out that this wasn't just an isolated event in one field. Reproducibility problems were arising wherever they were studied, and they all pointed to various systematic problems and creeping biases within the publishing process itself.

You can read my comic about replication crisis, Repeat After Me: Psychology's Reproducibility Problem, on The Nib.

But it hardly stops there. I had more material than I knew what to do with, and several interviews happened too late in the process to make it into the comic. As such, I'm going to start publishing the unused material here on Boxplot. Hopefully, together with my Nib piece, it will give people a greater understanding of this current problem in science, as well as how scientists are working to fix it.